Although China is catching up fast and is expected to surpass Japan by 2015 or so, right now Japanese consumers account for one-quarter of worldwide expenditure on such brands. That compares with 22% for Europe, 20% for North America, 19% for China and 15% for other markets, according to a 2010 study by Deutsche Bank.

The year 2011 was touted by many to be a year in which luxury brands would do relatively well globally and in Japan, following a dismal year in 2009 and some improvement in 2010. The March 11 disaster changed all that, and the doom-and-gloom forecasts were quickly upon us.

Looking at the situation now, however, it looks like glitzy products may not fare as disastrously as expected. Forecasts have been adjusted, and expectations are for global growth in luxury sales to average anywhere from 2-8%, depending on the source. In Japan, specifically, it is still "touch and go," but department stores over the summer reported good sales of luxury wristwatches, designer goods and higher-priced jewelry; imported car sales are up as well.

This all indicates that the initial mood of austerity that prevailed after the great quake may at least be beginning to wear off.

Since long before the Leman shock and March 11, luxury brands have had to work harder to attract and maintain Japanese consumers’ attention, as attitudes toward value for money have changed. For many of today’s more confident consumers, "brands" have become less aspirational, making "brand name/reputation" less of a consideration. Now the focus is on such factors as "quality," which many now feel they can judge for themselves regardless of brand name.

Looking at Japan Market Resource Network’s updated survey among 777 Japanese luxury consumers in September 2011, it is clear that these long-term macro trends affecting luxury brands over the long-term have become deeply entrenched. "Quality" trumps as the most important consideration (mentioned by 87% of all survey participants) compared with both "price" (68%) and "brand name/reputation" (55%). None of these measurements have changed demonstrably since the previous survey taken four years earlier, in August 2007, – suggesting that the situation among luxury buyers in Japan is relatively stable.

This is not to deny the inroads made by other second-tier brands and "fast fashion" chains like Forever 21of the U.S. and H&M of Sweden. Acceptance of these newer, non-luxury items is increasing.

In addition, luxury marketers still need – which they are, with swift expansions into China and other fast-growing markets. They are also moving aggressively into digital and online platforms in keeping with these newer channels’ rapid proliferation.

On the other hand, no matter what happens with luxury brand sales in Japan in this particular year, the country’s consumers will no doubt remain big purchasers of the brands for some time to come.